The Garden Professors™

If you follow current weather news, you have likely read the astounding story of the recent lake effect snowfall in Buffalo, New York, and other areas downwind of the Great Lakes, where over 6 feet of snow fell in just a day or two in some locations. My mom, who still lives in Grand Rapids, Michigan where I grew up, reported that in her city some areas got up to 30 inches during the same time frame. So this month I want to discuss lake effect snows and how heavy snows can affect your trees and gardens.

What is lake effect snow?

Lake effect snow is snow that is caused or enhanced by differences in the temperature of warm water in the lakes and the cold Arctic air that blows over it. Calling it “lake effect” is a bit of a misnomer, since cold, dry air blowing over a warmer ocean can cause the same effect. In the United States, it most often occurs downwind of the Great Lakes, especially in fall when the lakes are still warm and the air blowing in from the north is much colder and drier than the lake surface. It can even sometimes occur downwind of smaller lakes or reservoirs if the conditions are just right.

As the cold dry air crosses the warm water, copious amounts of water vapor evaporate into the air mass and once that warmer, moister air blows onshore again clouds drop huge amounts of snow in the areas downwind of the lakes. The snow usually falls in heavy bands that drop snow in areas that are highly dependent on the direction of the wind. Often the bands are just a few miles wide but if you drive through one your visibility can drop to near zero in just a short distance. When I lived in Valparaiso, IN, near the south end of Lake Michigan, winds blew straight from the north for much of the month of December 2000 dropping 32.0 inches of snow when Decembers there usually get just a few inches, thanks to the lake effect snow that occurred. (I moved to Georgia the next month, although it was not because of the snow—mostly.) As winter progresses and the lakes get colder with more ice cover, lake effect snow is reduced because of the decrease in available water vapor so fall and early winter are the prime times of year for the heaviest lake effect snow.

In this case, weather forecasters were well aware of the potential for record-breaking snow because of their knowledge of the lake temperatures plus the computer-generated forecasts of wind direction and persistence over time. Winter storm warnings and maps of predicted snowfall were produced well ahead of time. Even so, the amount of snow that was produced from this historic event is still amazing.

Source: Carolyn Thompson / AP Photo

Why did Buffalo experience such extreme snowfall amounts?

Buffalo is known for its incredible snowfalls due to its position downwind of Lake Erie, a long and shallow lake that is usually warm well into fall. The long distance of the wind blowing over the lake (called the “fetch”) allows the air to pick up tremendous amounts of water that becomes snow as it hits the land NE of the lake; the exact location of heaviest snow depends on the direction of the wind over the lake (see my poorly drawn map annotated on a screen capture of the Earth Nullschool streamline map for the day of the heaviest snowfall below). In this month’s case, the lake had temperatures well above the long-term average, and the wind across the lake was very consistent over a few days, allowing the snow to pile up dramatically. In some locations snow was falling at the rate of several inches an hour and the extended period of snowfall allowed it to build up to over six feet in some locations in just a day or two, while other areas not along the direct path of the wind received much less. The area of heaviest snowfall shifted as the winds changed direction over time.

The result of this weather event was the nearly complete shutdown of Buffalo and other areas affected by the heavy snow. Even a city that experiences as much annual snow as Buffalo does can be stopped in its tracks for a while by the sheer volume of snow that has to be removed. The weight of the snow also caused problems for a number of building roofs and caused some power outages as well. Even the professional football game between the Buffalo Bills and the Detroit Lions had to be moved from Buffalo to Detroit because of the impossibility of clearing out the open-air stadium and the roads around it for fans to get there safely (or at all).

Does climate change affect lake effect snow?

A warming climate does have some impact on the conditions that make lake effect snowfalls most likely. The lakes are generally staying warmer later into the fall, so when cold continental air does develop over Canada and move across the lakes there is more potential for large amounts of water vapor to be evaporated, increasing the chance of heavy snow. It is likely that there may be some reduction in the production of the coldest, driest air in polar regions, but it will still occur often enough for lake effect snow to continue to be a climate factor downwind of the lakes. It is more difficult to say how or if the weather patterns that determine the direction of wind flow will change as the climate gets warmer.

Source: Dan Taylor-Watt, Commons Wikimedia

How does heavy snow affect trees and gardens?

Lake effect snow is often very wet and heavy which makes damage to trees and power lines more likely. An average snowfall may have about one inch of water equivalent in ten inches of snow, but in a lake effect snow it is often more like six inches of snow to one inch of water equivalent which means it is very dense stuff to shovel. Wet snow may weigh up to four times as much as newly fallen regular snow per square foot. No wonder most heart attacks from clearing snow occur when this very wet and heavy snow has fallen.

The weight of this much snow can easily collapse the roofs of buildings. It can also do a lot of damage to tree limbs and shrubs, especially when the wet snow sticks and freezes to either needles or leaves adding to the weight on the limbs. Trees and bush varieties that are brittle or have poor branching structure are especially vulnerable to damage from heavy snow. Snow on the ground can help insulate the plants from very cold weather, but the moisture that is left after the snow melts can cause saturated soils that can negatively impact roots. Salt added to help melt the snow from paved surfaces can also harm plants and the deep snow cover in some lake effect storms can also provide cover for voles and other critters that like to nibble on bark.

For me, lake effect snow in my Michigan winter when I was growing up was the ultimate fluffy Christmas snow, with big fat flakes drifting down like a picture postcard. But when the flakes come down fast and heavy the holiday snow becomes a problem that can affect travelers, home owners, and gardeners too. I hope that as you travel over the holidays this winter, the snow that you see, whether you stay or go, is a delight and not an obstacle to spending time with your friends and family.

I’m resorting to clickbait tactics to get your attention. Here’s another – “Warning! Graphic photos follow!”

Uncorrected roots in containers or landscapes will create chronic water stress problems for trees.

If you have failing trees on your own property or on property you manage, you need to do one simple thing before you assume that pests or disease are responsible: you need to determine whether the root system is healthy and functional.

Now, I know you can’t see underground, but you can draw some informed conclusions based on whether you can see the root flare. To find the root flare, pull away any mulch or groundcover that’s obstructing your view. Once you can see soil, you should be able to see the root flare. If your tree looks like a utility pole (meaning you can’t see the flare), then it’s been planted incorrectly. This single mistake will have myriad consequences:

No flare = no chance

1. It’s buried too deeply – the flare needs to be at the surface.
2. If it’s buried too deeply, it’s likely the tree was planted without removing the materials surrounding the roots. Bare–rooting woody plants before planting is crucial to their survival.
3. Roots that are buried too deeply will not have sufficient oxygen to establish a fine root system for water and nutrient uptake, much less develop any structural roots.
4. Moreover, without removing the materials around the root, the roots are less likely to establish into the surrounding native soil. Neither are you able to remove poor structural roots. Check out this post for more information.
5. A structurally flawed root system, stressed for oxygen and encased in layers of clay (or potting media) and various combinations of burlap, twine, and wire baskets, is not going to establish quickly or well. Increasingly, it’s not able to supply sufficient water to the growing crown.
6. Oxygen-stressed roots will die, compounding the reduced water uptake problem.
7. As the crown experiences chronic water stress, it will experience dieback while opportunistic pests and disease take advantage of a tree unable to chemically defend itself.
8. Opportunistic pests and diseases are not the cause of tree failure – they are simply indicators of an environmental problem. Proper diagnosis is discussed here and here.

Bare-rooting plants allows you to correct defective structural roots before planting.

You should be able to confirm lack of root establishment by performing the wiggle test (that’s the secret hack). This will allow you to see whether the soil around the roots moves. If it does, that means the roots are not established. If the tree has been in the ground for more than 6 months, it’s probably not going to establish. The sooner you can dig up and correctly replant a relatively newly planted tree the better your chances that will recover and establish.

Here in the Southeast we were surprised last week by a much earlier than usual freeze, putting an end to many gardens full of tender plants, although the cold was not deep enough to kill more cold-hardy species. In many parts of the region the frost came earlier than the 10% probability of frost indicating that early freezing conditions like this will come in fewer than one in ten years. Of course many of you in more northern interior parts of the United States have already seen your first frost this year, but here we never seem to be ready for it. In fact in parts of southwest Georgia last year’s first fall frost did not turn out to be until well into January, which caused a lot of problems for gardeners and farmers who had to deal with pests and diseases that easily overwintered the mild conditions.

Frost versus freeze

One of the questions I often get this time of year is what is the difference between frost and freeze? The National Weather Service (NWS) puts out both frost and freeze warnings but has different criteria for each. For a frost warning, the predicted temperature may not even get down to 32 F (0 C), but may hover in the mid 30’s. For a freeze warning the predicted temperature is expected to get down to 32 F or below and for a hard or killing freeze it usually gets down to 28 F or lower. Once the area has gotten down to 28 F or lower, the NWS usually stops issuing additional freeze warnings since at that point all but the most cold-hardy plants have completed their growing season and are either dead or dormant.

How does frost form if the temperature does not get down to freezing?

To understand frost formation and when warnings are issued it helps to know both how frost forms and how temperatures vary near the ground. Frost crystals form on surfaces that get down to freezing and have something on the surface that is conducive to seeding crystal formation. This can happen even when the air temperature is above freezing in conditions of light wind and clear skies that allow surfaces to cool to freezing temperatures by emitting heat radiation out to space at night when there is no incoming solar radiation. Conditions for this can occur with temperatures anywhere in the 30s with a reasonable amount of water vapor in the air and as long as the surface (a metal car body, an asphalt roof, or a blade of grass) can cool to the freezing point. At that point, anywhere on that surface that has an appropriate scratch, particle, or other imperfection can serve as a place for ice crystals to form and start to grow. These are called nucleation sites and allow the initial formation of an ice crystal upon which more ice can grow into delicate but visible frost.

Frost will not form if the humidity is too low because there is not enough moisture to produce visible crystals. Often frost does not damage the plants a lot because most of the frozen water is confined to the surface of the plant and does not affect the interior cell walls, although there may certainly be some damage where the ice forms. Large formations of ice crystals can sometimes form on trees or fences if the conditions are right; this is called hoar frost.

Frost forecasts are also provided with the understanding that the NWS is forecasting temperature values for their thermometer heights of about 2 meters or 6 feet high, since that is how they verify the accuracy of their forecasts. In light winds and clear skies the temperature at the ground level is often colder than the temperature at the thermometer height due to cold air sinking so the ground in your garden may be colder than the forecast would predict. Frost is also more likely to form on elevated surfaces that don’t have contact with the ground, since soil temperature keeps the ground surface warmer in Fall than later in the year due to residual heat from the summer warmth. Blueberry farmers that I work with tell me that you can sometimes see quite a difference in frost damage to their bushes from top to bottom due to the different temperatures that the plant may experience at different heights above the ground. Bridges often have signs that they freeze first for the same reason.

Freeze damage to garden plants

The NWS issues freeze forecasts when the temperature is expected to get down to or below 32 F. The damage that the freeze does to plants depends on how long the temperature drops below freezing and how susceptible the plant is to cold temperatures. If the temperature barely gets down to 32 F for a short period damage is likely to be minimal since the water inside the plant cells did not have sufficient time to freeze. But if it lasts longer the water in the cells freezes and, as you undoubtedly know, ice expands and breaks the cell walls causing irreversible damage to plant leaves and stems that leads to their death. John Porter provided a useful table of how different garden vegetables respond to cold temperatures in his 2020 blog on spring frosts, which underlines why some vegetables like spinach and cauliflower do better as late-season vegetables than tomatoes and melons.

The discerning reader who looks at John’s article will also note some differences between the first frost map he published in his blog and the map above, because they cover different time periods. John used the map for 1980-81 to 2009-2010, since that was the current one at the time of his post. The map here uses the 1990-91 to 2019-2020 period since the normal temperatures have been updated since John’s blog was published. Average frost dates change over time as you can see especially in some areas like eastern Oregon and northern New York State and generally, as the earth gets warmer, the first frost of fall is occurring later in the year than it did in the past (although there are a few exceptions such as parts of northern Georgia).

With winter on the way, we are sure to see many more examples of frosts and freezes in the coming weeks for almost everyone other than those who live in tropical areas. For those of us who enjoy chilly weather, the magic of frosts and freezes is something we look forward to as it paints our dying gardens in icy white.

I’d intended to write the column earlier in the year, but it’s as relevant now as it was in the spring. This post will familiarize you with how unseasonable weather can affect your plants. Though I’ll be focusing on my own location in Tacoma, the phenomena are global. You just have to pay attention to what happened last week, last month, last year in your own location.

Our spring started out wet and cool, which is nothing new. But it was REALLY wet and REALLY cool compared to normal. This meant that our trees and shrubs had plenty of water to fill their expanding leaves and blossoms – but the lower than normal temperatures affected leaf growth. These dwarf Japanese maples had lots of leaves, but they were tiny! And they stayed that way, because once the leaves begin to lay down cuticle, they don’t expand any longer, even when it gets warmer. These maples put on a second flush of growth in the summer. Look at the difference in leaf size, determined solely by ambient temperature.

We had an abundance of flowers on our fruit trees – so dense that I put off pruning some of our heritage apple trees so we could get an even bigger crop (our black Angus love apples). But summer rolled around and…virtually no apples on ANY of the trees. What happened?

Well, that cool spring ensured that most of our pollinators were late to emerge from overwintering. I had wondered about them in the spring, as I could only see a few pollinating flies and no bees. But sure enough, we had almost zero pollination. No apples this year. Next year if the weather is similar I’m going to try using my battery-powered leaf blower to pollinate these trees. I’ll take pictures.

Fast forward to summer – for us, a record-breaking drought (again). Our temperatures weren’t as high as last year, but we still had very hot weather and no rain. For our landscape it’s not a problem, as we have well water for irrigation. But those gardeners who have little or no supplemental irrigation may very well find that their woody plants and perennials don’t perform very well next year: perhaps fewer flowers or branch dieback will appear. This is due to root dieback that happened all summer in unirrigated conditions. The damage is only seen in the following spring, when there aren’t enough roots to supply water to emerging buds.

Being able to predict the impact of specific weather events on your landscape plants is key to avoiding misdiagnosis and subsequent misuse pesticides or fertilizer in a futile attempt to rescue them.

Oh, and if you are wondering about the photo at the top, you’ll have to look at a post from 2009 to see what’s going on.

Spring bulb planting time is on across North America!  Many types of bulbs do well in desert and xeric gardens: hyacinths, ranunculus, iris, narcissus, crocus, alliums can all be happy. One bulb that’s often left off the list are tulips. Why is that?

The tall flashy hybrid or Darwinian tulips that fill the catalog photos are usually considered an annual in most desert gardens. They require more chilling than the our desert winters can usually provide and can be a little fussy about soil and water.
But tulips can be very happy in xeriscapes. In fact they can get so happy they’ll set seed and naturalize in the right conditions. And which tulips are those you ask? (Yes you did, I heard you.)
They’re species tulips and are non-hybridized. They’re more of “wild” type of plant. What’s so special about them?
They’re tough, amazingly tough.

Tulips are originally from mountainous areas of the Mediterranean, Middle East and Asia. Some are also native to Southern Europe, North Africa, and several Mediterranean islands. They’re frequently found clinging to barren mountain ledges, rocky areas exposed to wind and cold, and drought ridden slopes.

Species tulips are shorter and smaller than hybrids but what they lack in stature they more than make up for in resilience and showy display. They’re an early bloomer in the desert southwest which is wonderful for the pollinators that are often active on warm winter and early spring days.

Their foliage is usually more varied than hybrids; some have broad, curled edged leaves, some are tall and narrow. The color varies too, from a bluish tint to shades of green. Some varieties even have multiple blooms per stem.

Many species are attractive whether the blooms are closed or opened. They often have very different coloration inside and out.

Some have contrasting pollen color which adds great visual interest.

Species tulips are usually perennial in warm winter climates. They increase via bulb offsets while many will set seed. They aren’t fussy about soil as long as it’s well drained. But like all plants they do require water during bloom and while the leaves are green but still, not as much as other bulbs. They’re perfect for xeriscaped or low water landscapes since they require less overall water than other bulbs. Plus, they prefer to be dry during their dormant season, which is summer to fall.

These tough little beauties can occasionally be found in garden centers but for the best selection shop online, search for “species tulips.” Do some homework first, and become familiar with the the available varieties.

Plant these tulips from fall to early winter. Provide full sun and good drainage, rocky or lean sandy soils are ideal and most closely approximate their native conditions.

Don’t overplant with species that require a lot of summer water. Mix these bulbs with other plants that prefer hot dry conditions. Tuck them into those corners that get spring – early summer sunshine, spots that don’t get much summer water, or put in containers that you can enjoy and then ignore during the summer. Pot them in cactus mix combined with a small amount of regular potting soil and top with an organic mulch. Remember, drainage is a must and overly rich or high organic matter conditions aren’t to their liking.

If you live in a dry or desert region and have never tried species tulips, why not give them chance. You might just discover a new favorite.

In my last blog post in late August, the Atlantic tropical season was just beginning to wake from a long nap, with several areas of interest appearing on the National Hurricane Center’s (NHC) map. Since that time, the season has become incredibly active, with Hurricanes Fiona and Ian causing tremendous damage in North America. Other parts of the world have also seen damaging storms, including Hurricane Kay in the Eastern Pacific, post-typhoon Merbok in Alaska, and Typhoons Hinnamnor in South Korea, Nanmadol in Japan, and Noru in the Philippines. So, with apologies to those who live far from hurricane parts of the world, I want to talk one more time about tropical systems.

Where do we stand with the tropical season now?

As I am writing this on Thursday morning, September 29, I hear the sound of Ian’s wind in the tulip poplar trees outside my house in Athens, GA. Ian is still in central Florida, just about to come off the coast into the Atlantic Ocean, so that gives you an idea of how far the influence of a tropical storm can spread, especially with a strong high-pressure center to our north that is increasing the pressure gradient driving the winds. Ian made landfall yesterday afternoon near Fort Myers, Florida, as an almost-category 5 storm, with winds of 150 mph (some reports say 155 mph). The videos I saw yesterday showed the power of the storm, with tremendous wind gusts and a storm surge that surpassed 10 feet in some places. I know the damage is horrific, and some of those areas will never recover completely from the storm, as buildings have been washed away and even shorelines may have changed due to the force of the wind and water. Since Ian is expected to curve back toward the East Coast on Friday and may strengthen again, its effects are not over yet. Fortunately, a weaker storm has lower impacts, but folks along the Georgia and South Carolina coasts will be feeling those impacts in the next few days before Ian moves out of the area and dissipates.

Hurricane Fiona lashed Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic with rain of up to two feet in some places around September 18-19 before moving rapidly to the north and slamming into Nova Scotia as a post-tropical cyclone on September 24. It caused tremendous damage in both places from storm surge, wind, and rains. The floods in Puerto Rico destroyed a lot of local farms and gardens in the southern half of the islands where the rain was heaviest and in doing so, eliminated an important source of locally produced food as well as disabling a fragile power grid that had not yet recovered from Hurricane Maria in 2017. The storms in other parts of the world have had similarly bad effects on the lands over which they moved, with loss of trees and buildings and high storm surges wiping out coastal infrastructure. Not all hurricane impacts are bad, however, since the rain from Hurricane Kay in southern California helped reduce drought conditions there in a time when not much rain usually falls in that part of the world.

Predicting the tracks of hurricanes

One of the questions that have arisen with Hurricane Ian has been the prediction of where the hurricane would go. Predicting the track of a hurricane is an art that includes the use of multiple computer models that simulate conditions over the life of the storm. That includes sea surface temperature, vertical atmospheric structure, and the surrounding wind field which will push the storm around. On the news you will often see maps that show all the individual model results on one map, which ends up looking like a mass of spaghetti noodles, hence the term “spaghetti models”.

Forecasters look at all the individual model tracks together to see how consistent they are with each other and where the differences lie. Then the human forecasters use their knowledge of how well those models behave under different weather conditions to create a “forecast cone” that shows the region where the center of the storm is likely to go.

No one model is right all the time because they weigh different weather factors differently. In the case of Ian, the models run by European weather services did better, but that is not always the case. Generally, they say that 2/3^rd of the time, the central low pressure will stay within the predicted cone, although the storm itself is usually much larger than the cone and hazards like high wind, heavy rain, tornadoes, and storm surge can and do occur far outside the cone. If there is a lot of spread in the models, then the forecast cone is wider, indicating that they are less certain about where the storm will go.

The models are run every six hours or so, and each time the cone is updated to include model results that include new weather data observed since the last forecast was issued. As this happens, people that are in or near the cone must respond to the forecast by deciding whether to evacuate or stay in place and where to go if they do leave, since they don’t want to evacuate to a location that could be hit by the storm if the cone shifts. When the forecast is especially tricky, as it was with Ian, the movement of the cone over time can become overwhelming to people who just want to find a place they will be safe. The forecasts of where the storm is likely to travel are improving over time, but the tracks will never be 100% accurate because the atmosphere is a complicated place that we can’t simulate perfectly using even the best computers, so confusion is likely to continue to occur in future storms.

Dealing with flooded gardens

Since this is a blog about gardening, I want to end up mentioning what impacts these storms have on gardens. Coastal areas where there is a storm surge will see inches to feet of seawater flow over their land. The water contains salt but can also contain toxic chemicals from boats and tanks that are damaged by floating debris or strong waves. The salt and chemicals can kill garden plants but also may get deposited in the soil as the water sinks in, leaving toxic residue behind. The physical motion of the water on and off the land can also scour the topsoil and change the soil structure or deposit sand on top. Saturated soils can drown the plants by keeping oxygen from reaching the roots of plants. And of course, the howling winds can snap the plants, bushes, and trees above the ground, leading to damage that can be taken advantage of by pests and diseases. In areas where there is heavy rain and freshwater flooding, salt is not usually a problem, but all the other problems with too much water can occur there, too. For those who live where storm damage is heaviest, helping their gardens to recover will be a long process even if their houses survive the storm.

The Atlantic tropical season is not over yet for us in the Southeast, but I know that in other parts of the United States and the world, the seasons march on, so in the next months I will move on to talk about fall frosts and the upcoming winter. Thanks for bearing with me as I explore tropical storm systems. Please keep all of those affected by our storms this year in your thoughts and prayers as they work to recover from damage and disaster.

Irrigation bags, often called “tree gators,” are durable plastic bags used for irrigating newly planted trees. These projects have been discussed here and here and I still don’t like them as they don’t consistently benefit trees and often create conditions conducive to pests and disease. Plus, as the blog title suggests, their aesthetic attributes are nonexistent.

Newly installed trees and shrubs generally need to have supplemental water, period. It doesn’t matter if they are “drought tolerant” species – any plant needs sufficient water to establish roots. And where automated irrigation systems aren’t possible, there are many products that promise to deliver water to the establishing root system. Unfortunately, they often deliver other things as well, including pests, disease, and early death.

To be fair, many time these trees die because they were poorly planted: we know that improperly amended soils, structurally compromised root systems, inadequate root preparation, and/or poor installation are the leading causes of young tree failure. But anything that covers the trunks of young trees and reduces air flow and light exposure will, over time, create a dark, moist, and reduced oxygen environment that’s damaging to the bark of young trees. Wet, damaged bark allows opportunistic pests and pathogens to invade.

Until a few weeks ago, I had not seen any irrigation bags that I actually thought might work. These bags are installed on stakes away from the tree trunks, and they deliver water to the area where tree roots need to grow, enhancing root establishment. It took a trip to Malmö, Sweden to see this innovative approach and my immediate reaction was “why hasn’t anyone thought of this before?”

There are many types of irrigation bags, from sleeves to donuts, but none of them are as good for tree or soil health as a thick layer of arborist wood chips. When wood chips can’t be used for some reason, irrigation bags set well away from the tree and actually kept full of water might be a good solution.