How accurate is the USDA Plant Hardiness Zone map?

UPDATE: As of 11/15/2023, the USDA has published an updated Plant Hardiness Zone map that covers the 1991-2020 period, which includes a lot of the warmest years on record for the US. This map shows more detail than the old map and generally increases the zones in most areas by maybe a half-category. It also now includes Canada and Mexico. You can see it and read about it at USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map | USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map.

One of the first questions a gardener should ask when they are considering adding new plants to their garden is whether the plants can survive and thrive in the weather and climate conditions in their yard. One of the most useful tools for this is the USDA Plant Hardiness Zone designation. It provides a quick snapshot of the coldest weather the location is likely to experience, a key factor for how well the plants will survive in that area.

Purple aster, Patty O’Hearn Kickham, Commons Wikimedia.

What are plant hardiness zones?

Plant hardiness zones are based on the average annual minimum winter temperature at a location. For simplicity the zones are based on 10-degree Fahrenheit ranges. Each zone is further subdivided into “a” and “b” categories for the colder and warmer halves of the range. You can see the temperature ranges listed on the USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map website, which also includes a link to an interactive map that will help you determine what zone your location is in. My home in Athens GA is listed as being in zone 8a, which has an average annual minimum temperature range of 10-15 degrees F. Linda provided good descriptions of how to use the zones in this blog in 2019 in A Gardener’s Primer to Cold Hardiness, Part 1 and Part 2.  

How accurate is the USDA Plant Hardiness Zone map?

The latest official version of the map was published in 2012 and showed that most areas had experienced a half-zone change to a warmer zone from the previous map because of rising temperatures. There has been no new map since that time but as temperatures have continued to rise it seems pretty clear to me that the current map is outdated. And in fact, even back in 2012 shortly after it was published, Bert Clegg posted an article in this blog showing that the 2012 map was likely already outdated when it was published because it was based on a 30-year average in an era when temperatures are rising and minimum temperatures are rising much faster than maximum temperatures due to increases in humidity and urbanization.

This graph is created from the NCEI Climate at a Glance tool and can be customized to any location in the US if you want to play with numbers for your location.

We need to be a little bit careful with this comparison because the average minimum temperature is not the same thing as the average annual minimum temperature. The average minimum temperature is the average of all the daily minimums in a specified time period, while the average annual minimum temperature is the average of the single lowest daily temperature that occurred each year. You can have a fairly warm winter which still experiences an extreme cold outbreak that has a very low minimum temperature on one or two days. In fact, December 2022 had exactly that situation with the fiercely cold outbreak that occurred right around Christmas across a lot of the eastern United States. The extremely cold air was barely seen in the winter average temperature at all since February 2023 was extremely warm for most of the month and washed out the impact of the extreme cold since it occurred over just a few days in the average. But it certainly caused a lot of damage to plants that were exposed to the frigid air on those few icy days! If the 2012 map was outdated when it was published, it is surely more out of date now after an additional decade with some of the warmest years on record.

How will the plant hardiness zones change in the future?

As global warming continues, the average annual minimum winter temperature is expected to continue to rise. This will result in a northward movement of plant hardiness zones over time. For example, areas that are currently in Zone 6 may become Zone 7 or 8. The rate of change will depend on how fast the earth warms and that depends on how much and how quickly humans respond to minimize greenhouse warming. It would not surprise me if our hardiness zones in most parts of the United States now are at least a half-zone warmer than what is shown on the 2012 map and it could be even greater in some locations. Not all areas of the country (and the world, for that matter) are warming at the same rate, and areas closer to the poles tend to be warming more quickly because of the loss of snow and ice in winter, especially in the Northern Hemisphere.

Fall Foliage, Portland Japanese Garden, Daderot, Commons Wikimedia.

How will the shift in plant hardiness zones affect gardens?

This shift will have a significant impact on gardening and agriculture. Plants that are not adapted to warmer temperatures may struggle to survive. For example, some fruit trees that are currently grown in Zone 6 may not be able to produce in Zone 7 because they require a certain amount of cold weather to set a good flush of blossoms that form the fruit. Warmer winter temperatures will increase the chance of insect pests and diseases surviving over the colder months, leading to more problems in the next growing season. The last spring frost is likely to come earlier and the first fall frost later in the year. This might make some gardeners happy, since they can get out and start planting earlier, but has implications for pollination since the pollinators may not be able to adapt to the changes in the timing of flowering. That would result in less fertile crops and potentially lower yields of vegetables and other crops.

Gardeners and growers will need to adapt to the changing climate by selecting plants that are suited to warmer temperatures. You may already be doing this by choosing varieties and species for your gardens that are listed as being suitable for a warmer Plant Hardiness Zone than the 2012 map suggests. Gardeners may also need to change their planting practices, such as planting earlier in the spring or providing more shade for plants. In addition, changes in precipitation (which are not included in the Plant Hardiness Zones)  also affect what kind of plants you need to put in your garden since drought is likely to increase in warmer conditions at the same time that individual storm events may drop more rain than in previous years.

Of course, this does not negate the effects of local climate variation across your plot of land. Variations in shade, soil, and drainage will continue to affect variations in the microclimate across your garden, as I discussed in my first blog post, The Weather Where You Are. However, the local variations will occur on top of the changes to the overall plant hardiness in your region and global temperature increases are likely to cause much bigger changes to your local climate in the long term.

National Arboretum in October, DC Gardens, Commons Wikimedia.

How many plants are native to urban areas?

Does this look like a deciduous forest ecosystem?

The emotionally-charged native plant debate only seems to be growing. Well-meaning but misinformed decision-makers continue to institute native plant policies with pressure from special interest groups. Most recently, North Carolina’s General Assembly weighed in on the side of emotional appeal rather than research-based information in mandating “that native trees, shrubs, and other vegetation are [to be] used for landscaping at state parks, historic sites, and roadways.”

Roadways seem a less than ideal place for attracting wildlife

Don’t get me wrong – I love native plants and recommend the use of well-suited native plants in gardens and landscapes. I’m co-author of a book that helps gardeners in the Pacific Northwest choose native species that are likely to thrive in their gardens. But the belief that native plants are superior to introduced species in urban and other unnatural areas is just a knee-jerk reaction to the very real environmental and ecological problems we face. It gives believers a false sense of accomplishment in that they can reverse significant threats such as climate change, wildlife extinction, and pollinator decline simply by using native plants rather than introduced species.

Supporters for this native-only policy list the same tired (and false) reasons that native plants are superior to introduced plants. Here are some of those reasons cited in the North Carolina decision, along with my commentary:

“There are many environmental benefits to native plants, and they are much more likely to thrive in our weather and soils” (North Carolina Department of Natural and Cultural Resources Secretary D. Reid Wilson)

  • The concept of nativity is subjective and many scientists argue that such a subjective division makes it difficult to study, much less discuss, the benefits and drawbacks of introduced plants .
  • This post by Dr. Bert Cregg bursts the bubble on some of the native plant superiority myths.
  • Native soils are not the same as compacted, amended, and otherwise disrupted soils found outside natural ecosystems.
  • There is no research to support that native plants thrive in soils that have been disrupted by development and urbanization.
Even native plants will suffer drought stress if they don’t receive sufficient water

“Native plants are adapted to the state’s environment and more likely to thrive, especially during drought.”

  • Roadways, state parks, and historical sites are not natural environments (though some parts of parks and historical sites could be).
  • Plants that can adapt to disturbed environments are most likely to thrive. Some of these are called weeds.
  • Plants that can survive periods of drought have morphological and/or physiological adaptations for doing so. It has nothing to do with their nativity.

“They support pollinators essential to food production and ecosystem health and boost otherwise declining bird populations that depend on insects associated with native gardens.”

  • One of the basic tenets of ecology is that new resources are exploited by existing members of a food web. What happens with one species of insect or bird or plant is not the big picture – ecology is the big picture.
  • This blog post by Dr. Bert Cregg discusses a paper showing that exotic species can grow more quickly than native plants, but they are eaten more by herbivores.
  • This  blog post looks at some of the research on insectivorous birds that contrasts with the claim that native birds require native insects.
  • The most biodiverse landscapes are those with a high diversity of plants. The vertical structure of a landscape, created by the varying heights of trees, shrubs, and other plants, is crucial for bird habitat. I’ve published both a research article and fact sheet on this topic.

“Native plants, especially grasses, are better able to store carbon, thereby reducing greenhouse gases.”

Grasses and trees both belong in a landscape, but trees store more long term carbon than grasses can
  • Native plants have supercharged photosynthesis? There’s a Nobel Prize waiting for someone to demonstrate that.
  • Trees and other long-lived woody plants are best for storing carbon. Certainly not grasses. And the nativity of the woody plants is irrelevant to carbon storage.
Pacific NW native plants like Gaultheria shallon do not thrive in urban sites where environmental conditions are nothing like natural ecosystems

“Native plants provide habitat for birds and other pollinators, are more resilient, and require less fertilizer and other maintenance.” (Brian Turner, policy director at Audubon North Carolina)

  • Birds and plants have complex and often unexpected relationships. This post discusses a review article on the interaction between birds and those plants who depend on them to spread their seeds.

In June 2023, North Carolina’s Department of Cultural and Natural Resources installed a new 100% native plant garden in front of their DNCR headquarters. In comparing the before and after photos of the site, I’ve got a few observations.

  • If storing carbon is important (as stated earlier), then cutting down all those trees and shrubs (which don’t appear to be invasive species) was an interesting decision.
  • Why not just add a native garden to the existing landscape? That would have increased the plant diversity and retained the vertical structure, which is highly important for biodiversity.
  • If we want stable, biodiverse landscapes in our urbanized environment, we must include the use of introduced species – especially trees. 

“This policy is a big win for birds and everyone who cares about North Carolina’s wildlife. It just makes sense. ” (Brian Turner, policy director at Audubon North Carolina).

  • Nope. It’s a big win for dogmatic belief systems.
Vertical structure and plant diversity creates a landscape that appeals to people as well as wildlife

There are many things that we can do in our gardens and landscapes to maximize biodiversity. Spouting false claims about native plant superiority, garden shaming those who don’t eliminate introduced plants, and forcing communities, cities, and states into lock-step on what can and can’t be planted is not part of that process.

Plant Disease Primer -Part 3: Fight Bac(teria)

Previously in this series I started with some plant disease basics and then covered some common fungal plant diseases. Now let’s turn our attention to bacteria.  Just like with fungi before, this installment of the series, I’m going to talk about some of the most common bacterial plant diseases with some suggestions for treatment and prevention. This by no means will be an exhaustive list of diseases (there are so many!), but I hope to cover some of the most common ones that trouble gardeners. Most diseases have similar control and treatment options which will be shared in a section at the end, but special cases are noted in the list of diseases.

Fireblight (Erwinia amylovora)

  • Signs & Symptoms: Wilting and blackened young shoots with “shepherds crook” bend, brown/burnt blossoms
  • Host plants: Apple, pear, quince, and relatives
  • Treatment notes for Fire Blight: The bacteria is spread through pollen during bloom. Most common treatment is pruning out affected branches. Some application of the antibiotic streptomycin may help, but it must be applied to flowers and care must be taken to avoid potential side effects for pollinators. Use of copper fungicides in the dormant season may limit spread.
Classic fire blight looks like the ends of branches have been burned

Bacterial Leaf Spot (Xanthomonas spp.)

  • Signs & Symptoms: Small, water-soaked lesions on leaves; dark lesions with yellow halos, premature leaf drop and reduced plant vigor
  • Host plants: Various, including tomato, pepper, and crucifers

Bacterial wilts (Ralstonia solacearum, solanaceous crops; Erwinia tracheiphila; cucurbits; others)

  • Signs & Symptoms: wilting of leaves, usually rapidly and whole branches at a time; yellowing and browning of leaves; vascular tissue discoloration; rapid death
  • Host plants: solanaceous crops, cucurbits, many others

Crown Gall (Agrobacterium tumefaciens)

  • Signs & Symptoms: tumor-like growths/galls on stems, roots, and crowns; stunted growth and reduced yield
  • Host plants: many
  • Fun fact: A. tumefaciens transmits a small bit of DNA to the host plant, a circular plasmid, that causes the tumor-like growth. This was used as one of the first methods (and is still used) to genetically engineer plants by introducing new DNA.

Bacterial Soft Rot (Pectobacterium and Dickeya spp., others)

  • Signs & Symptoms: water-soaked, mushy, and foul-smelling lesions on plant parts, especially fruits and tubers (the classic “rotten potato” smell); rapid decay, slimy
  • Host Plants: potatoes, others

Angular Leaf Spot (Pseudomonas syringae)

  • Signs & Symptoms: angular, water-soaked lesions on leaves; lesions are often limited by leaf veins; premature leaf drop and reduced vigor
  • Host Plants: cucurbits, most commonly cucumber
The flow of bacterial cellular streaming is impeded, or limited, by leaf veins, resulting in “angular” spots

Bacterial Canker (multiple)

  • Signs & Symptoms: Canker-like lesions on stems and other plant parts; lesions may or may not ooze bacterial exudate; for citrus canker, lesions are common on fruits as well
  • Host Plants: many, usually pathogen specific

Bacterial Ring Rot (Clavibacter michiganensis)

  • Signs & Symptoms: brown ring/rot inside tubers; foliage yellowing and death
  • Host Plants: Potato, sometimes tomato

Treating Bacterial Diseases

Just like I discussed with fungi last month, it is difficult to eliminate bacterial diseases once present. Treatment focus should be on slowing down the spread of the disease to the remaining plant. Treatment is important for annual plants, which may be killed entirely by pathogens, and in woody perennials where symptoms include cankers or rots that affect perennial plant parts such as stems or trunks. Bacterial diseases that affect only foliage on perennial plants are less of a threat and often the damage is limited to aesthetics.

For the most part, removal of the diseased plant parts is an important first step in treating the disease. Bacteria stream, or ooze, through plant parts (this is why signs and symptoms are sometimes limited by plant structures, like angular leaf spot lesions being stopped by leaf veins). Therefore the organism may be present a distance away from the visible sign or symptom. For cankers and other stem infections, removal should include “healthy” tissue below (between the callus and main plant).

Sometimes this may require removal of large parts of plants, at which point decisions should be made about removal of the entire plant. Cankers occurring on main stems or trunks are especially devastating.

Once affected plant parts are removed, a treatment with a copper-based product may reduce spread. While often used as a fungicide, copper does have some effect on bacteria. Except for in the case of fire blight (usually in commercial orchards), treatment with an antibiotic is not practical or possible. Often repeated treatments through the season are needed once the disease is established in the nearby environment. Care should be taken to not overuse copper sulfate, as it will not break down in the environment and can build up in the soil, causing damage to populations to good fungi and bacteria in the soil. 

Bacterial Prevention through IPM

Just as in fungal diseases, there are several Integrated Pest Management strategies that can be used to reduce the likelihood of bacterial infection in your garden or landscape. Below are some strategies that can be used for general fungal prevention:

  • Use mulch to limit splashing of soil onto plants
  • Eliminate overhead watering to reduce foliar moisture
  • If overhead watering is necessary, water early in the day so plants dry out before the dew point drops in the evening
  • When possible, plant disease resistant cultivars
  • Reduce nearby weeds to eliminate potential secondary hosts
  • Practice good hygiene in the garden by cleaning up any fallen or diseased leaves, fruits, etc.

Wrapping it up

There are lots of bacterial diseases that can damage or kill plants in our gardens or landscapes. Prevention is key, as treatments only help slow the spread of disease. In the next installment, we’ll talk about viruses and virus-like pathogens. Stay tuned!

Fall is for planting?

Fall is for planting they say when folks talk about shade trees. But is it? When is the best time to plant a tree? In this blog I will cover tree planting times and other particulars, the drawbacks and good points of these decisions.

So is fall the best season to plant a tree? Of course like so many questions it depends on many factors. Where you live (latitude) is a big part of this equation. I reside in Southern California and Southern Arizona. Both mild climes by any standard, but the Arizona property is at a higher elevation (4500ft) and gets cold sooner than the Southern California location. In Alaska, for another example, the planting seasons are much shorter or narrower as the onset of cold weather can be sooner in the calendar.

Nursery Stake Removed, good! Mulch, good! No turf next to tree, good! Air gap between base and stem BAD!

I think it is important to consider things from a “tree perspective”; or when is it best to plant from a tree’s perspective. Planting is not only the act of installing the tree correctly (see other GP blogs posts for correct planting technique) but it is also an acclimatization process. It is a good idea to purchase your tree beforehand and give it time to get used to the temperatures, light levels and water in the new site. Most fall planted trees are in containers or B&B which requires we do root inspections in order to not plant a tree that has root defects. These root inspections include removing all the old growing medium and root washing (search the GP blog for root washing). Locally sources fall planted trees will automatically be acclimated to reduced light and cooler temperatures. In fact if you plant a deciduous tree it may already be preparing to drop leaves. Fall planted trees still need root ball moisture to establish and thus will need some irrigation, but fall is also a time of reduced water use. One benefit to fall planting is that the trees will grow some roots over the winter and be ready for a big growth push in the spring. They will be partially established and take full advantage of longer days, moist soil and warming temperatures.

Root washing exposes root defects and is recommended before trees are planted into landscapes, especially if trees have been container grown. Bare root stock may also require root pruning to fix injured or girdling and circling roots.

What about winter planting? I have a colleague that described in great detail his ambition to move to California and seek academic employment after not getting a $.50/hour raise at his landscaping job during a long stint of chipping ice in Minnesota to plant conifers in frozen ground. My colleague just retired from a nice career in Cooperative Extension, but that winter planting helped him make the move. You can plant trees in frozen soil but winter kill is a thing and the success rate of such efforts is less than for fall planting. In Southern California and other areas of the southwest and southern USA, winter planting is preferred for fruit trees because you have great access to bare-root stock (only in Winter actually) and we don’t contend with frozen soils. If it ends up being a super wet winter (see the previous blog by Pam for insight on that) it can be a problem when newly planted trees sit in saturated soils for weeks on end.

Spring planting is a thing because Arbor Day is in spring and everyone wants to plant trees on Arbor Day right? Spring planting is sometimes limited by availability, bare root stock is usually sold out or moved into containers. I don’t like buying left over stock because the leftovers are often not the best. And, trees may be in a new growth or flowering phase and their root systems are activating.

This leaves summer. In Southern California shade trees are planted all year. Fruit trees planted in summer will be the left overs from winter and again I don’t like left overs, so I generally don’t plant fruit trees then. Subtropicals establish well in warm weather so mangoes, avocados and citrus are easily planted in summer if irrigation is assured.

All container stock, even boxed trees, should be inspected for girdling roots. Planting large trees requires careful monitoring after planting to assure success.

So the harsher the climate, the more restrictive the planting dates, but Fall is still best. In mild climates of southern states you can plant when you want in most cases. But avoiding months with frost is usually helpful as nursery stock often has tender growth. In almost all cases follow your plantings with a generous ring of arborist chips, avoid planting directly in turfgrass and irrigate your tree like it is still in the nursery for the first few weeks until it roots into the native soil. Do not amend the backfill and PLEASE remove the nursery stake at planting. Provide whatever the tree needs to stand upright with loose ties to poles outside the rootzone. Plant trees where they have room to grow and access to sunlight for most of the day. Plant HO!