Author: Pam Knox

I am writing this post on Thanksgiving Day, and I can hear football in another part of the house while I sit here with cat in lap. Here in Georgia, we are still officially in the growing season, although that will end in the next few days since a cold front has pushed through today, ushering in much colder conditions that will result in temperatures in the mid-20s next week. It will be a while before we see snow, though, and in fact we only get it every couple of years in Georgia, so we may not get any snow at all this La Nina year, since La Nina winters are usually warmer and drier than usual in the Southeast. Many of my friends from more northern areas have already experienced killing freezes and even snow so today I want to talk about how snow on the ground affects your gardens.

What does the phrase “blanket of snow” mean?

When you hear the term “blanket of snow”, what does it mean to you? To me it means enough snow to completely cover the ground. Quora says it is a metaphor: “Everything is or was covered with snow thick enough to hide the actual objects and their shapes like a blanket would hide the objects it was covering.” Certainly, a thick enough covering of snow will mask the shapes of objects underneath it, just like the blanket on my bed hides the outlines of my legs. But I also think of a blanket as an insulator that keeps heat trapped underneath it and a blanket of snow can also do that for the ground beneath it. Snow also has weight, an early snowfall landing on autumn leaves can quickly strip a tree of its leaf cover if the snow is heavy enough to release the leaves from their branches. Linda has discussed damage to garden trees and shrubs from snow in a previous post.

When does snow form and fall?

Snow can come from several weather sources. In a previous blog post I discussed lake effect snow, and this week is likely to have some very big lake effect snows downwind of the Great Lakes (up to 5 feet!) because of the combination of very cold air with the record-setting high temperatures the Great Lakes are experiencing this year. Snow can also be caused by upward motion of moist air over elevated land, which becomes snow when it rises above the freezing level and drops precipitation on the mountains. For most people, snow comes when a large area of low pressure brings cold air into contact with warmer moist air at the surface. The dense cold air causes the lighter warmer air to rise over it. The air temperature drops as it goes up leading to bands of snow where the cold air and the moisture meet. If the cold air lags behind the surface low pressure, then it is unlikely to cool off the moist air enough to get snow and you may get a cold rain instead. This is the most likely way most of us will get snow if we don’t live near a large lake or mountain range.

How does snow insulate the ground?

Snow insulates the ground from the cold air above the snow by trapping air within the snow cover. This is not unlike how a down comforter works. The snowflakes fall against each other in random orientations that leave a lot of air between the individual flakes. The trapped air serves as a barrier between the really frigid air that is over the surface of the snow and the soil beneath it. In some cases, the snow is so effective at insulating the soil that the soil temperatures can be above freezing while the air above the snow cover is much colder. This is especially true when the skies overhead are clear because the top of the snow radiates thermal energy up to space very effectively when there is no cloud cover. If the soil stays above freezing, then pests and weeds will continue to live in that soil until a longer freezing spell comes along later in the winter when the ground is less protected by the snow. However, the insulation can protect from the desiccating effects of very cold, dry air on the plants that are waiting under the surface for spring temperatures to bring them back to life. A winter drought in the wheat fields of the Great Plains can lead to severe damage to the winter wheat crop since the lack of insulating snow cover leads to soil temperatures too low to sustain the wheat plants into the next growing season.

The amount of insulation snow cover provides depends on the density of the water in the snow cover. You can think of this as the ratio of snow depth to snow water equivalent, the depth of water that the snow would have if you melted it and measured the water volume that was left. Typically, the ratio of snow depth to water equivalent is roughly a 10 to 1 ratio—in other words, 10 inches of snow is equal to 1 inch of liquid water. But that varies widely depending on the temperature and weather conditions at which the snow occurred. A heavy lake effect snow near 32 F can be a ratio more like 6 to 1 while a really cold Arctic or high-altitude snow can be more like 15 or even 30 to one, resulting in a very fluffy snow that is dry and powdery with the snow crystals barely sticking to each other.

Different shapes of snowflakes affect snow cover density

The difference in the ratio of snow depth to water equivalent is due in part to the different shapes that snow crystals form depending on what the temperature and relative humidity are where they are forming in the atmosphere. The snowflakes that grow in the highest humidity levels and form near freezing are called dendrites. These are the typical snowflakes depicted on Christmas cards and in children’s books, with six-armed patterns that can be very ornate and beautiful. The dendrites usually cause the fluffiest snow covers because the edges of the flakes are rough and catch against each other, resulting in a lot of space between the flakes. Other shapes of snowflakes are denser and are also smoother, resulting in a closer packing of snow crystals that lead to a tighter snow cover. The longer the snow cover sits on the ground, the more dense it becomes as the rough edges of the snowflakes melt and smooth out, resulting in a tighter packing of the snow cover that becomes heavier and harder to shovel.

For gardeners, a blanket of snow can be not only a thing of beauty but a way of protecting your garden plants from the most extreme cold air. It can also be a way of providing moisture that will be needed by the growing plants in spring once the next growing season begins. So if you get snow, enjoy it as it covers your winter garden but also walk and drive safely if you have to go out in it. If you live in an area that does not get snow, enjoy the pictures that others post on social media and think about how a blanket of sparkling ice crystals might look in your garden.

Coming up in December: end of year summary

I plan to post a summary of the 2024 season in my December blog post. There is a lot to talk about this year, not just in the Southeast, and I hope to cover a good bit of it in that article. In the meantime, happy Thanksgiving to those of you in the United States and a happy Christmas and holiday season to all who celebrate it.

If you find yourself singing “How Dry I Am” these days, you might be under the influence of a large, stationary area of high atmospheric pressure. This past month, most of the eastern United States has been trapped in this pattern, with warm temperatures, clear skies, and no rain at all for most of the past month. In fact, many cities are on the verge of setting new records for low or no precipitation for the month of October, and some may even break records for the driest month ever. In this post, I will discuss what high pressure is, how it affects precipitation and health, and what impacts these may have on your gardens.

What is atmospheric pressure?

Pressure is a measure of the force of the atmosphere pushing down on the surface of the earth. This is caused by the weight of the air above that surface. As you go up in the atmosphere in an airplane or as you climb a mountain, the amount of air that is above you decreases and the pressure goes down. Pressure also changes horizontally as differences in the temperature around you cause variations in the density of the air, leading to areas of high pressure where the air is more dense and low pressure where it is less dense. Wind is just the movement of air in response to differences in pressure as the atmosphere tries to equalize pressure everywhere horizontally. In the vertical, the pressure gradient pulling air up is balanced by gravity pulling the air down. The wind at the surface is controlled not only by the variations in pressure at the surface but also by friction and the revolution of the earth around its axis, which diverts moving air to the right of the original movement in the Northern Hemisphere and to the left in the Southern Hemisphere (we call that the Coriolis force). Because of the combination of these forces, air tends to spiral into the center of the lowest pressure and spiral out of the center of the highest pressure.

How does atmospheric pressure relate to precipitation?

As the air moves into the center of low pressure, it meets in the middle and rises up, since it cannot go down into the earth. Rising air cools off as the pressure decreases and eventually the water vapor in the air condenses and forms clouds and sometimes precipitation. In the middle of high pressure areas, the air sinks, leading to air that is heating up and evaporating any clouds that might have formed elsewhere. Skies may be bright blue due to the lack of water vapor in the descending air. A complete circulation is formed when air at the surface of the high moves out away from the center towards areas of low pressure, then rises up and spreads out away from the surface low, moving into the top of the high pressure column and sinking towards the surface. You can see this schematically in the diagram below.

When an area of high pressure persists over an area for a long time, the sinking air leads to persistent sunny skies and low humidity, making it very difficult for clouds and rain to form. In summer, these long-lasting high pressure centers can lead to heat domes and oppressive and dangerous conditions such as occurred in the Pacific Northwest a few years ago. In the winter, high pressure is often associated with cold outbreaks of frigid, dry and dense air moving south from the Arctic (in the Northern Hemisphere). Those conditions lead to freezes caused by temperatures that fall to 32 F (0 C) or lower due to low winds and no clouds to trap the heat near the surface.

This fall has been a textbook case of a strong high pressure that has parked over the eastern half of the United States, causing day after day of warm and sunny weather and almost no rain at all. I often think that a drought is just too many days in a row of nice weather (assuming you prefer sunshine, which not everyone does). Fall is the time of year when we tend to have the longest periods of dry weather in the Southeast, but the dry spell does not usually last as long as it has done this year. If you enjoy warm and quiet weather (or sometimes cooler and less humid weather if some dry air has moved in from the north), fall is the time for you to really enjoy your garden before it shuts down for the winter. The dry conditions are good for many farmers too, because the harvest of commodity crops like cotton are easier when the plants dry up. Grape growers also appreciate the dry conditions because it concentrates the sugar in the grapes, leading to more tasty wines. Large-scale areas of high pressure around 30 degrees North and South latitudes are related to the formation of deserts like the Sahara and the Desert Southwest in the United States because the sinking air prevents the occurrence of precipitation, although it can rain there too when the monsoon blows moist air into the region and heat makes it rise to form clouds and rain.

How does high pressure relate to health?

Air pressure variations can lead to health issues in some people. Most people seem to be affected by low pressure, which can cause sinuses and ears to hurt and bother some people’s joints. Changes from high to low pressure associated with the movement of cold fronts also bother many people with arthritis and can cause headaches in some sensitive people. In high pressure areas, most people feel more alive and active. It is hard to know how much of that is due to the pressure and how much is due to the persistent sunshine and lack of rain, though. Interestingly, there is some evidence that more women give birth when the air pressure is low, especially when there is a big change due to an incoming tropical cyclone.

Sinuses, inversions and trapping of aerosols

Air quality also suffers under high pressure because the sinking air traps pollutants near the surface of the earth. This can include soot, smog, and even pollen. The temperature of the air above the surface often rises with height before cooling off as you go higher in the atmosphere. We call this an inversion because we normally expect temperature to decrease as you rise away from the earth, and instead it rises over a layer near the ground before cooling off above that layer. Farmers spraying some herbicides are not allowed to spray when there is an inversion because it can lead to concentration of the chemical near the ground and drift into neighbors’ fields, causing damage to the plants there. This can also happen in home gardens if you have a neighbor that uses a lot of chemical sprays in his or her yard. In the worst cases, a strong and persistent inversion can lead to dangerous levels of pollutants that can cause harm to people with lung conditions like asthma. Smoke from wildfires can also get trapped under the inversion, adding to the pollutant load.

How you can plan for high pressure impacts

If you know that high pressure is forecast for your area, you can use that information to plan for the kind of weather you are likely to experience while it is in place. If it persists over the area, it will be dry and you may have to increase your watering. Plants may get dustier and could be affected by trapped pollution and chemical treatments, leading to spotting or discoloration of the plants and eventually death as the pollutants affect the soil. If you need to work outdoors during persistent high pressure, make sure you monitor the air quality levels so you do not irritate your lungs or dry them out in the low humidity of the sinking air.

Enjoy the days of high pressure as you work in your gardens in the sunny conditions. Low pressure will soon come and bring rain and clouds. We need both to keep our gardens and our gardeners happy!

For those of us in the Southeastern United States, this past week has been a whirlwind of preparation for Hurricane Helene, followed by the terrifying storm itself and now, for some people, months of clean-up and houses, yards, and gardens that may never be the same. My post this week (I did not get to it last week because of the impending storm) will be about how to prepare for an extreme weather event, including where to find accurate and timely information on weather forecasts and how to prepare your house and garden for the extreme weather you may suffer. While we just went through a hurricane, this could apply equally to an ice storm or blizzard, derecho, tornado, or any rapidly occurring weather event. No matter where you live, you will experience extreme weather at some point and need to be ready for it. My post from last month, https://gardenprofessors.com/how-would-your-garden-handle-a-12-inch-rainfall/, was surprisingly prescient, since Helene also brought extreme rainfall to the Southeast, particularly to western North Carolina and Virginia and to the area around Atlanta, GA. Our hearts go out to all of the people affected by Helene and other serious weather disasters.

Preparing your property and garden for damaging wind and rain conditions

The best way to deal with an extreme weather event is to prepare for it well ahead of time. I used to play a game with my son when he was young: “Name all the ways that something could go wrong (in his case, what could make a train or airplane crash).” It is a surprisingly effective way to make you think about possible dangers that might lurk around your home if a severe weather event occurs and what you might have to do to minimize them. If you can identify the risks of an event, then you can address them before the roof starts to blow off and the trees start falling.

The first step is to look around the outside of your house for any potential threats to your property that could become safety issues in strong winds or heavy rains. If you have trees, are they healthy? Are there any low-lying or diseased branches that could come loose in a strong wind and hit your house or car? Could a 50-mph wind from the southwest (or whatever direction your storms usually come from) blow them into your windows or onto your roof? Are there any areas on the outside of your house that are in poor repair and in danger of failing in a storm such as a loose railing or fence? If you like decorative items in your garden like garden gnomes or shiny balls, can you remove them before a storm approaches so that they don’t become wind-borne missiles? You should also consider potential areas where erosion might be enhanced by the ground cover or slope and determine if there are ways to slow the flow of water to preserve your soil and garden design.

Once you identify potential problems in your yard, you can repair them before a storm comes. But you should also make sure that you have adequate insurance coverage and that you document what you have before a storm hits with an inventory or video recording. You might also need special insurance to cover extreme events; I read today that less than 1% of all residents of western North Carolina had flood insurance, even though many of them live in flood-prone areas. Floods are not covered by most homeowners insurance policies. Of course, there could be many reasons for not buying it, including high costs, but if an extreme event occurs, you are going to wish you had it.

Identifying location concerns that could affect your safety

No matter where you live, there are bound to be risks due to the location of your property. If you live on top of a hill, you are prone to experience more lightning and higher winds and potentially more snow since the temperatures at higher elevations are generally lower. If you live in a river valley, your property and gardens would be more vulnerable to floods but also to freezes since cold air drains downslope to low-lying areas. When you decide where to live, consider the land the house and garden are on and also how you get there, whether you have to cross rivers or go through areas that are heavily wooded, which could be a problem in high winds but also potentially in a wildfire. Where you get your water could also be a concern if your well has an electric pump and power is likely to go out.

Get ready to go or stay

Preparing for an extreme event means planning for providing food, shelter, and water for your family and pets if you plan to stay and planning for an evacuation if it is not safe to stay. There is a lot of information out there about this planning process and I am not going to list everything here but you will find some links at the end of this blog that you may find helpful. As I write this almost a week after Helene came through the Southeast, there are many people here whose power is still out and who may not be able to travel because of all the trees and power lines that are down in their neighborhood and who have no access to clean water because the water plants were destroyed or the electric pumps on their wells no longer work. It usually takes about 72 hours for outside help to start getting supplies into affected areas, so you need to plan for several days and perhaps much longer to provide everything you need. Eventually, help will come from a variety of federal, state, and local agencies and non-profits but often the first help comes from a neighbor with a chain saw or extra water. If you evacuate, you will need a plan to get out safely, including more than one possible evacuation route, plenty of gas for your car, copies of important documents, and a place to go, which may include housing for pets or livestock.

Getting the weather information you need to make good decisions

Once you have your plan for severe weather, you need to monitor the situation for potentially threatening situations. A smartphone weather app is an easy way to get your daily weather for regular planning purposes but is not adequate for situations when weather might be changing rapidly since the apps are often updated only once or twice a day. In severe weather, an old forecast is a bad forecast because things may be quickly changing and you need the latest information.

There are a number of apps and websites that you can use to monitor extreme weather events, including the National Weather Service local forecasts for frequently updated information, watches for potential severe weather, and warnings for when it is spotted. The National Hurricane Center is the official source of hurricane and tropical storm warnings and their maps are updated every three hours when a storm is present. Beware apocalyptic posts on social media that often show a single worst-case model run that has practically no chance of occurrence just to gain attention and clicks. Stick to expert guidance from trusted sources. You can also get information on what local conditions you might experience and the timing of wind and rain using the hourly weather forecast from the National Weather Service, although in a rapidly changing extreme weather event even these may not change quick enough to capture the evolution of the storm. Weather radios and some smartphone apps that are designed can provide information about watches and warnings based on your location. If you live in an area that is prone to flooding or severe weather or is in a floodplain or near the coast of the ocean, then you should pay careful attention to rain in the area upstream of you are or the likely storm surge from a tropical cyclone. Be prepared to evacuate if emergency managers ask you to.

Planning ahead can save lives

Extreme weather is something that we all need to plan for but that planning often falls by the wayside because of other pressing tasks. But if you can take the time to do some simple advance planning and be prepared to act when the event starts, you can save yourself a lot of work later on when the clean-up begins and may save your houses and gardens. You may even save your family from serious consequences! I hope that it never becomes an issue for you, but I also know that many communities, businesses, farms, and families are dealing with the consequences of extreme weather now. Thanks to help from many people, they are starting to rebuild their lives, but it will be a long time before things get back to normal and for some, it may never be the same.

Some useful links:

Georgia Department of Public Health: Severe Weather Preparedness

Resident’s Handbook to Prepare for Natural Hazards in Georgia (good for other locations too)

Bankrate: How to Create a Home Inventory

FEMA: Hurricane Preparedness and Evacuation Planning

Early in August, Hurricane Debby made landfall in the Big Bend of Florida’s Gulf Coast, crossed into Georgia east of Valdosta, and moved leisurely northeast. The remains of Debby crossed the coast, briefly moved over the Atlantic Ocean before turning northwest and making another landfall northeast of Charleston then headed north into New England. While the winds decreased quickly once Debby made landfall, it dropped huge amounts of rain along its path. The highest official rainfall amounts topped 12 inches, but I heard of some unofficial measurements of 20 inches in a few isolated locations. Pictures of erosion in peanut fields and standing water in cotton stands filled my inbox, and it made me wonder how a garden would cope with so much precipitation in such a short period of time. I want to take a few minutes today to discuss it.

What happens as the rain is falling?

Tropical rainfall (or rain from any heavy thunderstorm) contains a large volume of water in droplets falling from a height of several miles. Generally, the raindrops are large and fall in a shape that looks more like a hamburger than the typical teardrop we often see in pictures. As the drop falls, the bottom flattens out under the influence of the air that it is falling through and surface tension holds the drop in a rounded shape. Raindrops fall at different speeds depending on how big they are. Large raindrops associated with warm weather and strong updrafts like the ones we see in thunderstorms and hurricanes can have a falling speed of up to 20 miles per hour, while smaller raindrops fall at lower speeds of 2 miles per hour and drizzle at much slower speeds of a few feet per second. The speed at which the drop falls is known as its terminal velocity and is reached when the force of gravity pulling the drop downward matches the friction of air slowing the drop down as it falls.

What damage does the rain do when it hits the ground?

When the falling raindrops hit leaves, they can cause damage to the plants. The biggest raindrops are heavy and falling fast so they can break off or damage the foliage, although not as much as hail does. We see this especially in fall when the leaves are loosely attached to the branches after they start to change color and die. A heavy rain (or snow if you live in a colder area) can remove a lot of leaves in a short time, making the fall colors muted or non-existent as the leaves are washed to the ground.

When the rain hits bare ground it can cause soil particles and microbes to splash upward. Farmers know that rainy weather can lead to more diseases because of the enhanced transmission of fungal spores and other pathogens up onto the crops. Of course, the wet soils can also provide a lot of moisture in the air around the plants that can fuel the development of fungal diseases like powdery mildew, especially when plants are close together with little ventilation by the wind. Mulch may be able to help reduce the transmission of spores but creates a moist environment around the roots of the plants that can cause problems if it keeps too much water in the ground. One advantage of arborist wood chips is that the wood absorbs moisture and releases it later and the pores between wood chips are large and can store a lot of water before it runs off. It can also preserve soil moisture between rain events and it can reduce the impact of raindrops on the soil surface, limiting nutrient loss and splashing.

Where does the rain go when it hits the ground?

Once rain hits the ground, some of it sinks into the ground (infiltration) while the rest might either run off if there is a slope or stand in a puddle if there is a low-lying or flat area. The rate at which water can enter the soil depends on the characteristics of the soil. If it is gravel or coarse sand, it can take in as much as 0.8 inches of water per hour. Sandy loams can take in 0.4 to 0.8 inches per hour, loams 0.2 to 0.4 inches per hour, and clay soils less than 0.2 inches per hour. The rain can also compact the soil, making the movement of oxygen around the roots more restricted. The water that does not sink into the soils will either sit at the place the rain has fallen or will move downhill under the force of gravity. Flowing water will often carry a lot of soil and debris with it, so the movement of topsoil and nutrients like nitrogen from field to stream can cause problems for both environments. Silt from the floodwaters can cause loss of oxygen in streams and murky conditions affecting the stream health or the silt can be deposited in low-lying areas. In the biggest floods, large deposits of sand can ruin fertile bottomlands by covering healthy soil with thick deposits of unproductive silt and sand. The erosion can also dig deep trenches through gardens and farm fields, leading to loss of plants and making the movement of farm equipment across that rutted land difficult especially since it can also get bogged down in the mud.

If the water pools in a low-lying area the soil can become saturated for a long time. This causes damage to the plants standing in the water because without oxygen, the roots die. In the short term the loss of oxygen can cause the plants to wilt. If it lasts for a long time it is likely to lead to the death of the plants in low-lying areas. In Hurricane Debby, some farmers are starting to see flooded cotton plants become reddish and stop growing, reducing the eventual yield of the crop. The dying roots can also give off ethylene gas, hastening the ripening of crops like tobacco and shortening the time that farmers have to harvest it before it rots. Farmers are often told to harvest crops that grew in flooded areas separately from upland crops because the negative impacts of oxygen deprivation can stunt plants, ruining their yields and increasing the likelihood of aflatoxin in peanuts or other toxins which can decimate the value of the crop.

What can gardeners do to prepare their gardens for heavy rains?

In the future, the frequency of heavy rains is expected to increase in the United States as well as other parts of the world because of more water vapor in the atmosphere as the planet warms. What can gardeners do to make sure their gardens can withstand heavy rain events? The first thing to do is to understand what type of soil you have and how much water it can absorb. If you have sandy soil, heavy rain will have less of an effect than clay soil but it might mean you have to water a lot more often. In Debby, some areas that received 12 inches of rainfall needed irrigation less than a week after the storm moved through because the sandy soil of the coastal plain just does not hold much water. The next thing you should consider is the local topography of your garden. Are there areas that are natural channels for water? Make sure those areas are lined with material and plants that can withstand water and reduce erosion. If you have low-lying areas, use those to plant rain gardens with plants that are more adapted to wet conditions.

Rain is a necessary part of gardening unless you live in a desert and provide your own water to your gardens, but it can cause a lot of damage if the water is not managed carefully. Take the time to study your garden and understand where the water will flow and your garden will be much more likely to take a 12-inch rainfall in stride with minimal damage. It might even thrive!

In my blog post last month, I mentioned the likelihood of having a very active Atlantic tropical season, especially because the ocean surface temperatures are so warm. But despite an early start to the season with the first three named storms (including Beryl, the earliest ever category 5 storm in the Atlantic Ocean), it’s been quiet for the last few weeks. The ocean temperatures continue to be very warm. What is preventing the development of tropical storms in such a warm environment? One of the main culprits now is Saharan dust that blows west off the African continent and affects the vertical structure of the atmosphere. This keeps tropical waves from developing the necessary circulation to strengthen into a powerful storm. In this post, we will discuss the impacts of the Saharan dust and how it is both good and bad for the environment.

What is Saharan dust and where does it go?

The Sahara Desert covers most of the northern portion of the African continent. It’s the world’s largest source of wind-blown dust supplied to the ocean and adjacent land. It is one of the driest places on earth and is covered with sand and rocks but very little plant materials. This means the dust from the Sahara is mineral dust with low organic content. Seven elements (Ca, Mg, Al, Ti, Fe, K, and Na) account for 98% of the total analyzed inorganic burden. The dust particles are often very fine, so they can travel a long distance from their source region on the continent.

Winds in that part of the world blow from east to west near the surface. You might know of them as the “trade winds”, which are often described in elementary geography classes as the winds that helped European ships travel west to North America. The trade winds form a band of westward-blowing winds from about 30 degrees south to 30 degrees north latitude around the globe. The strength of the trade winds changes over time, but when they are strong and a lot of dust is available over the Sahara, the particles can blow all the way across the Atlantic, covering large parts of the Atlantic and bringing low air quality and beautiful sunrises and sunsets to people in its path. This month has been particularly dusty, with satellite records showing this is the 2^nd dustiest July since continuous records began in 2002. Generally the dust plumes occur at a height of 5,000 to 20,000 feet where the trade winds are the strongest.

How does Saharan dust affect tropical storm development?

The air that carries the Saharan dust is usually very dry, which disrupts the usual moist conditions above the ocean surface and keeps thunderstorms from growing vertically. The vertical air movement would normally help initiate the decrease in surface pressure that helps storms grow. The dust particles also serve as nuclei to absorb even more moisture from the air, keeping the layer dry. The dust is opaque (which makes it visible from satellites) and shades the surface of the ocean, cooling it off and reducing its ability to energize storms.

The Saharan dust layer is most likely to occur in the period between mid-June and mid-August, but there are variations over time and location because of the strength and direction of the wind. Sometimes the winds even blow from south to north, bringing dust to Europe, although this is less frequent. Tropical storms can sometimes form in pockets of relatively dust-free air, as Hurricane Beryl did this year, but the thickest layers are very effective at shutting down storm growth.

How does the dust affect air quality and human health?

Saharan dust incursions into the Southeastern United States can often been seen in air quality measurements taken in cities around the region. Like any other dust particles or other aerosols like smoke from forest fires, the particles can trigger asthma, burning eyes, and other symptoms associated with bad air quality. The dust can be seen in lower visibility around the cities, deposits on horizontal surfaces like cars and plants either directly from the dust or from “dirty rain” which contains the dust and brings it down to the ground. It can also result in spectacular sunrises and sunsets due to the scattering of the sun’s rays by the particles (similar to those from volcanic eruptions). If you are sensitive to poor air quality and plan to work outside in your garden, you will want to monitor air quality carefully and avoid the times when the pollution is worst.

How does the dust affect plants?

Saharan dust has important positive impacts on both phytoplankton in the ocean and on the Amazon rainforest. Those areas are often missing nutrients that would allow plant growth and so additions of iron and phosphorus into those areas can improve soil or water fertility and plant growth. Unfortunately the dust can also contain bacteria or other organic material that can lead to undesirable growth of algae in the ocean. The dust is not acidic, so acid rain is not something we worry about with rain containing the Saharan dust, unlike rain from volcanoes or from coal-burning power plants. The dust can also reduce absorption of sunlight by plants if there is a large amount.

How can gardeners prepare for episodes of Saharan dust?

First, we need to recognize that while we have not studied Saharan dust impacts for long, it has been around for many years and is a natural part of the earth-atmosphere system. It has beneficial impacts on soil nutrients in tropical rainforests and gardens in the affected areas and helps reduce activity in the tropics early in the season. But with dust events decreasing in the next few weeks, we can expect the Atlantic tropics to start heating up again as the most active part of the season gets underway. Gardeners should monitor their plants for dusty conditions and should also keep track of air quality impacts if they have asthma or other breathing disorders that could be affected by the dusty conditions. Gardeners in other parts of the world should also be aware of sources of dust and other pollutants that could affect their gardens and their own health. The Garden Professors blog has discussed the impacts of dust on gardens in several of our previous posts so please search for them if you want more information.

Last month I discussed the forecast for the Atlantic tropical season and pointed out that it is likely to be an active one. As I write this, there has already been one named storm (Alberto, which went into Mexico but dropped a lot of rain in southern Texas) and two more areas of potential development are moving their way through the Atlantic (note TS Beryl formed on Friday, June 28 at 11 pm after this was written). Hurricane season has begun! This month I will discuss what a tropical storm is and how they form into hurricanes. I will end by discussing how tropical storms and hurricanes impact gardens and what you can do to prepare for them.

Where do tropical storms and hurricanes form?

While we think of hurricanes as hitting the southeastern part of the United States, they are actually much more widespread than that. The map below shows that tropical storms can form in both hemispheres and affect every continent except for Antarctica. Here in the United States we see them most often over the Atlantic Ocean but can experience storms on the west coast from time to time as well. The storms are not always called hurricanes, they can be called typhoons in the Western Pacific and cyclones in the Indian Ocean and Australia. To be considered a hurricane or one of these other storms they have to record a sustained wind speed of 74 mph or higher. Storms in the United States that are stronger than that are classified by the Saffir-Simpson scale into categories 1 through 5 depending on how strong the winds are. And of course the wind gusts in the storms can be quite a bit higher than the sustained winds, they are just more localized and last for only short periods.

What ingredients are needed for a tropical storm or hurricane to form?

The prerequisite conditions for hurricanes are: warm, deep ocean waters (greater than 80°F / 27°C), an atmosphere cooling rapidly with altitude, moist middle layers of the atmosphere, low wind shear, and a pre-existing near surface region of low pressure in the surface environment. But you might have noticed from the map that even if these conditions are in place a tropical cyclone is not likely to form if it is not at least 300 or so miles from the equator. This is because of the Coriolis force which acts on moving air on a rotating planet to push air to the right of the original direction of movement in the Northern Hemisphere and to the left in the Southern Hemisphere. Low pressure draws air into the circulation, but the Coriolis force helps it to spin up into a storm with a defined circulation.

The seeds of low pressure where storms form can come from atmospheric waves moving east to west off of Africa, sometimes from stalled fronts over the Gulf of Mexico or along the East Coast of the United States. These usually provide the initial trigger of storm development. But not all waves or fronts can develop into cyclones if the other conditions are not right. The location of typical development depends on the time of year, with early and late storms developing closer to the United States and most storms in the peak period from mid-August to mid-October forming from waves coming off the west coast of Africa.

You might wonder why there are almost no tropical storms in the southeastern Pacific or in the southern Atlantic Ocean. That is because the water is normally too cold to sustain storm development. Since ocean temperatures are warming over time we could see more storms there in the future, especially in the South Atlantic where temperatures are already warmer than the SE Pacific. The tropical season could also become longer as the ocean warms up to 80 F earlier in the year in the future.

Tropical storms and hurricanes move under the influence of winds midway up in the atmosphere which push along the core of the storm as it is growing or weakening. The stronger the core of the storm, the closer the link between the large-scale atmospheric pattern and the storm movement. In the map above you can see that most storms move in a curving pattern that begins in the east near the equator and moves west over time before recurving to the northeast in a clockwise manner. This pattern is caused by subtropical high pressure, called the “Bermuda High”, over the Atlantic but by other names in other parts of the world. The path of each storm is unique due to the weather pattern present at the time of the storm, and sometimes they can take some crazy paths if the weather pattern is unusual.

How do tropical storms become hurricanes?

Usually, a wave of low pressure over the ocean pulls in air towards the center to reduce the pressure gradient. As the air moves in, the Coriolis force causes it to start spinning. In the Northern Hemisphere this spin is counterclockwise. The air above the surface circulation starts to flow out of the storm and drops the pressure at the surface causing the storm to intensify as air rises near the center of the storm. This continues as long as there is a source of energy (warm water) below it and there is no jet stream high up in the atmosphere to disrupt the development of the circulation. When the sustained wind speed reaches 74 mph its designation is changed from Tropical Storm to Hurricane and it stays that way until the wind speed drops as the storm weakens over land or colder water.

What impacts do tropical cyclones have on gardens and what can you do to prepare?

Tropical systems have a variety of impacts depending on where they are and how strong they are. Thoughtful gardeners will consider all the risks that severe weather can have on their gardens and get ready long before the storms hit. The strong and gusty winds are the most apparent impact; they can cause damage to trees, buildings, and plants and can cause significant damage to gardens. It’s a good idea to walk through your property periodically to look for dead or diseased limbs that could become airborne missiles in strong winds (whether or not they are from a hurricane). Decorative items and furniture left outside can damage tree trunks as well as houses and gardens when they become wind-borne. So if a storm is imminent, scout your property to remove anything that could be potentially hazardous.

Another important impact is flooding rain. The amount of rain that falls from a hurricane depends in part on how fast it is moving, since a slow-moving storm can drop more rain on a particular spot than one that is moving through quickly. The storm does not have to be strong to produce a lot of rain either—some of the weaker storms have been great rain-makers. And it does not even need to be an organized storm. Wet tropical systems that are not fully organized into storms have the potential to produce flooding rain, as we saw in southern Florida just a couple of weeks ago with over 20 inches of rain in some locations. The remains of hurricanes can also cause floods far inland, especially if there are mountains to help the air rise. Hurricane Agnes in 1972 had damage from the Caribbean all the way to Canada because of the torrential rains that fell along the Appalachian Mountains as it moved north. Gardeners who live in areas where flooding is likely should plan ahead to divert rain into rain gardens away from their planting beds to reduce erosion and keep soil from becoming saturated.

Hurricanes can also cause other impacts too, especially if you are near the coast. Storm surge can drive sea levels up to 25 feet above mean sea level as the water builds a dome under the area of lowest pressure that moves along with the storm until it makes landfall. If you are in a coastal area, you need to consider what the elevations of your land and house are so you know how much the water might rise in a strong storm. Another impact is the strong storms that can occur in the spiral bands outside the main circulation. These storms can hold weak tornadoes as well as heavy rain and gusty winds. In Hurricane Ivan in 2004, we had a tornado in Athens GA at the same time that the main storm was making landfall along the coast several hundred miles away.

As gardeners, it is important to keep in mind that tropical storms and hurricanes are not all bad. The rain that comes from these storms may include 30-40 percent of the summer rain that is expected to fall in a tropical area, and if few storms come, drought is more likely.  But the damage is also like to stress your gardens (not to mention the gardeners!), so learning more about these storms and planning ahead to prepare for the damage they might bring is a good thing for every home owner in an area prone to tropical activity to do now, before the storms come.

We are entering the hottest time of the year for most of our readers except for those who live in the Southern Hemisphere or in tropical locations where there is not a big seasonal cycle. Heat can have a big impact on both gardens and gardeners, so this is a great time to look at a new product that is now available from the National Weather Service to alert people who spend time outside to the dangers of high temperatures. This new HeatRisk product will help you use the 7-day forecast to identify times when the heat will be the most severe—which will allow you to plan your outdoor work accordingly to avoid the worst dates and times of dangerous heat conditions. I will also provide some resources for how heat affects plants from The Garden Professors and briefly talk about one potential consequence of high temperatures on the upcoming Atlantic tropical season, which starts June 1 in the United States.

How does high heat affect gardeners?

Usually when we talk about heat, we are talking about high temperatures. But as they say, “it’s not (just) the heat, it’s the humidity.” High temperatures alone can cause problems for humans and animals because our bodies are built to work best in a narrow range of temperatures. If the temperature goes above that range (or below it), our physical systems experience distress and eventually will shut down. High humidity makes it worse because it makes our natural ability to cool off by sweating less effective because the water on the skin from sweat does not evaporate readily when the water content of the air is high. Many indices for the heat index factor in both temperature and humidity, and the wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT–more on this in a minute) includes temperature, humidity, wind speed, and solar radiation because all of these factors can affect the body’s ability to cool off.

If you are outdoors for a long time and start to experience dizziness or nausea or even worse become unconscious, then you are likely experiencing a heat-related illness and you need to get to a cooler area where you can recover right away. In the worst cases, a trip to the hospital may be needed when the body temperature is elevated above the safe range for human life. You can learn more about protecting yourself from high heat at Heat.gov.

What is the NWS HeatRisk map?

Fortunately, there are number of online tools available that can help identify days and times when the danger from high heat is most likely. The National Weather Service has just released a new experimental product called HeatRisk, which provides an interactive map that shows where the heat will be the most dangerous over the next few days. An example of the map is shown below. You can either zoom in on the map or click on your location to get a specific temperature forecast for that spot.

Another tool that may be useful is available across the United States from the Southeast Regional Climate Center at https://convergence.unc.edu/tools/wbgt/. Their tool produces hourly forecasts of WBGT based on National Weather Service forecasts for several days ahead at whatever US location you choose (not just the Southeast) that can determine when conditions are most dangerous for working or playing outside. The WBGT is often used by sports teams to determine if it is safe for players to practice outdoors and how often they need to take a break. The tool gives you the choice of several state regulations for threshold values for WBGT that should determine whether football or other practice is safe. The same information can be used to decide if outdoor workers need extra water breaks in the shade or when gardeners should come in, cool down, and rehydrate.

How does high heat affect plants and gardens?

Plants respond differently to heat than humans and other animals do because they don’t sweat. High heat can cause the plants to close the stomas in their leaves to retain moisture but a long enough period of high temperatures and dry conditions with little soil moisture leads to wilting and eventually, death of the plants. I am not an expert on this, but fortunately Jim Downer and other GP authors have written several blog posts in the past that address the effects of heat stress on plants. John Porter has also written on the effects of high temperatures on pollination and ripening. Check out some of these posts, especially Jim’s post on abiotic disorders, to see what effects high temperatures may have on your garden.

What do we expect from this year’s Atlantic tropical season and how is it related to high temperatures?

This year we have seen a lot of record high temperatures across the globe due in part to greenhouse warming. Sea surface temperatures in the northern Atlantic Ocean have been especially high, most likely due to a combination of greenhouse warming and the absence of aerosol particles in the atmosphere due to the switch to cleaner fuel for ocean vessels a couple of years ago. This change allowed more sunlight to heat up the ocean surface. These ocean temperatures are so much higher than normal that the temperatures are closer to August values than what we usually expect in late May. Since hurricanes feed and grow over water than is warmer than 80 F, it means that the atmosphere over the main development region for Atlantic tropical storms is stoked and could contribute to both a larger number of storms than usual and more rapid development for any storms that do develop. It’s no wonder that the forecasts for the number of named storms in the Atlantic this year is one of the highest ever predicted. So if you are anywhere within reach of an Atlantic storm (which is most of the eastern US but also includes most of the Caribbean, Mexico, and potentially even Central or northern South America and parts of Europe), you should be prepared for tropical activity well in advance of any storms that might come your way this year.

Enjoy the hot weather but treat it with respect

If you like hot weather as much as I do, you are looking forward to the warmer weather we will see over the next few months. But if the weather gets too hot, as it is now in India, Mexico, and other places, heat-related illnesses and even deaths will become more likely. In 2023, the United States set a new record for the number of heat-related deaths. Climate change will make devastating heat waves more likely in the future, so make sure you are prepared. If you understand how heat affects your bodies, pets, and gardens and know how to take care of yourself, you will be better equipped to enjoy the dog days of summer this year and in the future as the earth’s temperature continues to rise. Be safe and enjoy the summer heat!

As I write this, about half of the lower 48 United States has passed the median date of the last freeze according to the National Centers for Environmental Information. Here in the Southeast, we are well into the planting season even though our usually early planting for crops like corn was delayed due to very wet soil. The rest of you may have to wait for a few more weeks before you can put any heat-loving plants into the ground. As we enter the growing season for the majority of the country I thought it might be helpful to take an updated look at what we expect this summer and fall to give you an idea of what conditions you might experience.

What factors will control the climate this summer?

In the Southeast most gardeners say that you should not plant summer crops and flowers until after Easter, although since Easter has a variable date that can sometimes be a problem when it is unusually early. In western Michigan where I grew up my grandmother always told me to wait until after Memorial Day. What rule of thumb do you use? If you look at the map below, you can see why! Wherever you garden you need to know the specific weather and climate to expect in your location. That includes things like the plant hardiness zone, how much rain to expect, and the specific microclimates within your garden (especially if it is a large one). That will help you pick the plants and trees that will do best in your location.

Every year is unique in terms of what temperature and precipitation patterns occur, but in many parts of the country we can get some indications of what might occur due to large-scale climate patterns that are occurring across the world. Of course these also affect the weather in other places from Europe to Australia and points in between, but I am going to focus on the US in this post.

The biggest patterns that are going to be affecting the climate this summer include 1) rising temperatures due to greenhouse warming, 2) the predicted transition from a strong El Niño to a La Niña later this summer, and 3) unusual warmth in the Atlantic Ocean which will affect the development of tropical storms and hurricanes in this year’s Atlantic Tropical Season.

Impacts of greenhouse warming trend

As temperatures rises around the globe we can expect both daytime high temperatures and overnight low temperatures to increase in temperature. In most areas the minimum overnight temperatures are rising faster than the daytime highs. This is due to a combination of increased humidity caused by increases in evaporation and more water-holding capacity of the air and heat-trapping in urban areas due to pavement and buildings. You can determine trends in temperature and precipitation for your location using the “Climate at a Glance” tool for anywhere in the continental US, including maximum and minimum temperature. The increased humidity will increase the likelihood of fungal diseases in plants that are susceptible so you will want to watch carefully and be prepared to treat them. You should also watch for protracted hot, dry spells and increased water usage, which might require you to water more often. But keep in mind that while the average temperature might be warmer, there will still be ups and downs with the daily weather.

Impacts of El Niño swinging to La Niña

We are currently in a waning El Niño (EN) after experiencing a strong EN over the winter. The winter weather pattern showed a very clear EN pattern over most of the country (and other parts of the world for that matter) with unusual warmth and dry conditions in the northern US and wet, somewhat cooler, cloudier conditions in the southern part of the country although that was tempered by the long-term temperature trend upward. The current EN is expected to disappear rapidly over the next few months and swing to the opposite phase, La Niña (LN), by mid to late summer as shown below. I also discussed this back in February. This LN will likely control our weather for a good part of the rest of 2024 and into the spring of 2025.

How will this affect the growing season weather in the US? While the correlation between LN or EN and summer weather is less strong than the winter correlation, we do expect to see some lingering effects of EN for the next few months before LN kicks in. That means wetter conditions are likely to continue in the southeastern US for the next few months before dry and sunny conditions move in later this summer or fall. The timing of when that transition occurs depends on how quickly the transition from EN to LN occurs. It is changing right now, but it’s still too early to tell how soon it will affect our summer weather. In the northern US we will probably see more seasonal weather for the next few months but next winter is likely to be much colder and wetter than last year. Again, the transition should occur later this summer but could wait until late fall to really become apparent. Some areas like the Central Plains are not very predictable by the phase of EN or LN so we are less certain about what you will experience if you live there. You can see the lack of certainty in the May-July temperature map below.

The warm Atlantic and what we expect from the Atlantic tropics this year

Last year, we had 19 named storms plus three other unnamed storms that were close to tropical status. This is in spite of the El Niño, which usually suppresses development of tropical systems because of strong winds aloft that keep tropical storms from developing the vertical structure they need to grow. Most of those storms stayed over the Atlantic Ocean where the water temperatures have been at record-setting levels for over a year. They are still at record-setting levels now and are even hotter than last year at this time. This year with a La Niña there is not much to keep storms from developing so I expect to see more storms, especially in the western Atlantic and in the Gulf, where they are more likely to come onshore and do damage or drop a lot of rain along their paths. I have seen predictions of as many as 33 named storms this year, although that would be a record and climatologists don’t generally like to forecast record values. A more conservative value of mid-20s for named storms seems more likely, although this is still a lot more than we usually get. What you actually experience depends critically on the path that the storms take, which cannot be predicted until after the storms form. So you could get hit directly by strong winds and heavy rain or you could be in the area outside the path with clear skies, sinking air, and no rain at all.

No matter how many named storms we get, those of you who live in the eastern US where a hurricane or tropical storm (or their remnants, which can also carry flooding rain to places far away from the tropics) can travel should be watching carefully when the storms start popping later this spring or early summer. Conversely if you live in the western US, you may see less activity this year than last year since when LN is strong, the Eastern Pacific Ocean (EPO) storms have a harder time developing due to the colder ocean water in the EPO associated with LN. But with rising global temperatures we are in uncharted territory so surprises are always possible.

What NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center predicts

The combination of all of these factors (and other climate influences as well) is collected into NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center maps. I have shown the one for May through July 2024 below. It shows the likelihood of wet conditions in the Southeast and drier conditions out west associated with the lagging EN conditions. You can see maps for other time periods at Climate Prediction Center – Seasonal Outlook (noaa.gov).

For gardeners, if you are in the region where frost is still likely, you should hold off on planting tender vegetables and flowers at this point or at least start them inside. If you are in the southern reaches where frost is no longer likely then you can (and probably are already) plant the summer flowers and vegetables you are craving to set out, as long as no cold outbreaks are predicted. If you live in an area that is affected either directly by tropical storms and hurricanes or indirectly by heavy rains that remain after the storm has weakened now is a good time to clear out dead limbs and other potential flying debris, think about drainage in your gardens in case of heavy rain. Please make your hurricane plans in case one tracks over you (you can find one for Georgia at https://gacoast.uga.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/ResidentsHandbook.pdf but most of the information there is relevant to large parts of the country). If you live in other parts of the country like the western states, you could see dry conditions and potential wildfires return to those areas so you should prepare for those conditions. By late fall, the La Niña should be well established and dry conditions are likely to occur in the southern tier of the US while cold and wet conditions are more likely in the northern states.

In the last week, I’ve driven all the way from western Virginia, where the redbuds are blooming, to Tallahassee, FL, where red clover is everywhere. As I drove through the mountains north of Charlotte NC, I noticed some signs indicating that strong gap winds may blow down the valleys when atmospheric pressure patterns align to produce strong pressure gradients that drive the wind. I have discussed wind before in previous posts (“Who has seen the wind?” and “Does wind chill affect plants?”) so you can find the basics of what causes wind and some of the different kinds of local winds by going to those posts. In today’s article I want to share some different local names for winds and other local weather and invite you to share your own local weather names. Note that this is not a complete list, but I will provide links at the end that prove a bigger sample of all the names that are used around the world to denote different kinds of weather, especially wind.

Local weather names based on topography

Local mountains and valleys can cause a big variety in the types of winds we observe. Generally, these winds can be classified as katabatic winds blowing downhill and anabatic winds blowing uphill. The direction depends on the time of day due to heating but also to large-scale weather patterns that direct the flow of air. Local winds can also occur due to changes in the heights of the ridges so that where the ridges are low, air can spill over the mountains in the gaps between peaks. Winds blowing downslope can also accelerate as they move to lower elevations, increasing their strength. Those winds can be very strong because of the funneling effect of the terrain leading to warnings like the ones I saw on Interstate 77 in the northern North Carolina Mountains. Some of these local winds in other parts of the world are called the Viento Zonda (or Zonda wind) in Argentina, the Williwaw in the Alaskan Panhandle, Karaburan in Central Asia, Chinook wind along the Front Range of the Rocky Mountains in the USA, Mistral in France, and the Warm Braw in the Schouten Islands north of New Guinea. You can read more about each of these by looking online at Wikipedia or other sites (link below). Winds which are affected by topography can provide good sources of steady wind for wind farms.

One of the most interesting large-scale topography-driven winds is the Tehuantepecer in southern Mexico which begins in the Gulf of Mexico (after coming south across North America) as a north wind that crosses the Mexican isthmus and blows through the gap between the Mexican and Guatamalan Mountains. It is so strong that it can be felt as much as 100 miles out to sea. This happens several times a year, especially in winter when the wind is more often from the north, and is amazing to see on https://earth.nullschool.net/ when it happens. In fact, as I am writing this on Thursday (March 28, 2024) it is happening today! How cool is that?

Local weather names based on changes of air mass

Some winds are named for abrupt shifts in atmospheric temperature and humidity when air from a different source region moves in. They can be small-scale changes due to outflows from individual thunderstorms like gust fronts or can be larger-scale changes due to wind blowing an air mass with colder, hotter, or drier characteristics into the area.

Some of the winds associated with drier and dustier conditions occur near desert locations as the wind shifts to bring in air from the desert regions to replace the air that was already there. One of the most common terms for one of these is haboob, which originated in Sudan but is now used in the western U. S. (Haboob basically means “dust storm” in Arabic but sounds a lot more exotic). A haboob is associated with a wall of hot, dusty air that moves into the region from the desert, bringing low visibilities to the region (often resulting in car accidents as drivers caught unawares can be blinded by the sudden change in conditions). Other dry winds include the Khamsin in Egypt and the Red Sea region, the Scirocco in North Africa and the Mediterranean, and the Harmattan in West Africa.

Cold winds include the Blue Norther, a fast-moving cold front that moves in from the north that can send temperature plummeting by 20-30 degrees in a few minutes, the Bora in the Adriatic region, the Khazri in the north Caspian Sea, the Montreal Express in New England, and the Norte in Mexico. In the Southeast US, we have what we call the Wedge, which is a shallow layer of cold air that moves south along the eastern slope of the Appalachian Mountains under northeast flow, bringing clouds, cold weather, and the chance of ice storms to the region in spring. The Wedge is partly due to topography as well, since the cold air is so shallow that it can’t move west over the Appalachian Mountains and thus is forced down to us in parts of the Carolinas and Georgia. Hot dry winds include the Brickfielder in southern Australia, the Leveche in southern Spain, and the Diablo and Santa Ana winds in California, which are also affected by air moving down from the mountains into coastal areas of the state when high pressure dominates the Southwest.

Local winds are associated with thunderstorms

In addition to the wind names associated with topography and change of air quality there are also some names that are tied to smaller weather events like hurricanes and thunderstorms. Those include the Kalbaishakhi in India and Bangladesh, the Bayamo on Cuba’s southern coast, the Pampero in Argentina and Uruguay, the Cordonazo on the west coast of Mexico, and the Borasco in the Mediterranean. Strong winds associated with thunderstorms can cause tremendous damage to gardens, trees, and buildings and can cause problems with flights and road transportation. Since it is spring and we are entering severe weather season for a lot of the US, it’s a good reminder that it does not need to be a tornado to cause significant damage—straight-line winds can be just as severe.

Knowing your local climate is important for gardeners

Anyone who lives for a long time at a location will start to recognize the local weather and climate patterns that govern your local garden conditions. If you are really dedicated, you can even measure these variations. If you know that in certain seasons, you are more likely to experience very dry dusty air, you might consider plants that can survive those conditions with less care. If you live in an area that is subject to frequent strong local winds, you will need to plan your garden to place more wind-resistant plants where the air flow is the strongest or else construct a wind shelter to keep more sensitive plants safe. Buildings can also affect the wind flow and can cause “wind tunnels” where the air is constricted and blows faster in the narrow passage.

Note: For those of you who wonder about the title of this post, Maria (sometimes listed as Mariah) is a fictional wind popularized in “Paint Your Wagon” (Lerner and Lowe, 1951) and by the Kingston Trio (1959). The name may have originated with the 1941 book “Storm” by George R. Stewart according to my colleague Jan Null of Golden Gate Weather Services.

Sources of more local wind information

Here are some websites that have listings of additional local winds, although none of them is a complete list, I am sure.

Wikimedia (with links to most of the individual winds): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_local_winds.

GG Weather: https://ggweather.com/winds.html

U. K. Met Office: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/learn-about/weather/types-of-weather/wind/wind-names

If you have a local name for the wind or weather in your region, please share it in the comments!

In this blog I’ve talked several times about El Niño and La Niña and how they affect climate across the Northern Hemisphere as well as their impacts on the rest of the world. We are currently in a strong El Niño with sea surface temperatures in the Eastern Pacific Ocean (EPO) that are much warmer than the long-term average. But underneath the surface the ocean currents are starting to change and the El Niño is expected to swing quickly into the opposite phase, La Niña. That will affect us in North America but also other parts of the world since both El Niño and La Niña are linked to global atmospheric patterns. Since a La Niña Watch was just issued by NOAA this week I will be talking about the changes we can expect to see over the next few months and how those changes will affect gardens and gardeners.

Review—What are El Niño and La Niña?

El Niño and La Niña are opposite phases of a large-scale atmosphere/ocean pattern that is driven by temperatures in the EPO. The pattern affects climate in many places around the globe. It is the biggest driver of seasonal climate in the Southeast and Pacific Northwest as well as in some other countries, especially in Northern Hemisphere (NH) winter when it is usually the strongest.

In September 2023 I discussed the likely impacts of the El Niño that was growing at that time and how it would affect your winter gardens. The conditions I expected have mostly been observed, although there are some local differences that are not surprising considering that each event is unique. Northern states have been incredibly warm with little snow, while in the Southeast we have had a lot of rain and cooler (although not frigid) temperatures due to wet soils and a lot of clouds blocking the sun. California is getting hit by one atmospheric river event after another, so they are also very wet and are even seeing a lake in Death Valley. I imagine they will have quite a bloom of spring flowers when it gets warmer because of the ample moisture. What have you experienced in your area? Did my earlier column get it right?

How is this season different than a typical El Niño winter?

Even though we have had the swings of El Niño and La Niña (collectively called El Nino Southern Oscillation or ENSO) for thousands of years as evidenced by layers in ice sheets in Peru and ocean sediments, there are other changes that are not cyclical. The rise in global temperature over time is showing up as a warming trend in all seasons but especially in winter. That does not mean we don’t see other swings in climate over time because ENSO and other atmospheric cycles are still occurring, but they are superimposed on the slowly rising temperature associated with increases in greenhouse gases so the cold outbreaks aren’t quite as severe and the warm spells last longer.

This year one of the most notable things we are seeing in global climate is the unbelievable warmth in the Atlantic Ocean. Temperatures there now are at values consistent with June or July temperatures! This is the energy that will feed tropical storms later in summer (more on that in a minute). Scientists are still not sure of all of the factors that are contributing to these record-setting conditions, but they may include the eruption of Hunga Tonga, the elimination of sulfur emissions from modern cargo ships, and changes in the global ocean circulation.

In addition, in spite of one cold big outbreak this winter across the eastern United States, most areas have been warmer than normal resulting in an early spring that has brought honeysuckle leaves to my yard more than a week early. You can follow the “green wave” north and see when it gets to your area or verify that it’s already there at the National Phenology Network site. I am concerned about the possibility of having another late frost like 2023 that could impact the peach and blueberry growers in the Southeast since our average last spring frost date is early to mid-March for most of the commercial peach region. There has been enough cold weather for most of the fruit-producing plants to have reached their required number of chill hours, which means the warm weather is making them ready to bloom. While I don’t see another cold outbreak on the horizon for the next few weeks, we have had frosts in the Southeast into April before so we are not out of the woods yet.

When will La Niña begin?

Climatologists predict that El Niño will weaken through spring and we will swing back into neutral conditions by the April through June period. From there most models predict we will move into a La Niña by the June through August period. By NH fall (September through November) there is a 77% chance we will be in La Niña conditions. This has implications for the summer and especially for the Atlantic tropical season since in neutral and La Niña years the number of tropical storms that occur in the Gulf and Atlantic is higher than in El Niño years. Last year despite El Niño we had 20 named storms, much more than the average of 14 events. This was in part due to the unusually warm water. Most of those stayed over the Atlantic Ocean rather than make landfall due to the presence of a strong jet stream high in the atmosphere which disrupted the development of storms farther to the west and prevented a lot of damage to us in the United States. In spite of that, we still had Hurricane Idalia and Tropical Storm Ophelia, both of which caused a lot of damage to infrastructure and agriculture.

With La Niña fully in place by fall, there will be little to stop the development of tropical storms in the Gulf and Atlantic Ocean except for Saharan dust and unfavorable weather patterns in the United States that could at least shunt any storms away from land. Some early unofficial predictions are for 25 or more named storms to occur this year, although the official predictions are still a few weeks away.

Next winter, we can expect La Niña to control a lot of our climate. That means warmer and drier conditions across the southern part of the United States while cold and wet conditions return to the northern states. Here in the Southeast, that means soil could be pretty dry in spring 2025 leading to issues with planting although it will be easier to drive heavy equipment into the fields than I expect will happen this year.

What does all of this mean for gardeners in the United States?

Because of the recent warm conditions associated with rising temperatures and enhanced by El Niño in northern parts of the country, spring is coming early to many places. That can be a good thing if you like flowers and don’t like snow, but it does mean that your early flowers will still be susceptible to frost damage if we get another cold outbreak later in March or even into April or May for northern states. So you will need to be prepared to protect the tender plants if a frost or freeze occurs.

The end of El Niño and the eventual rise of La Niña also has implications for areas that are affected by tropical systems. This includes the Gulf and East Coasts and areas downwind of those locations but can also include parts of California and the Southwest which can see impacts from tropical systems in the EPO west of Mexico. Rainfall could be hit or miss in the late summer depending on where the storms go. You should prepare well in advance of June 1, the official start of the season, because the warm ocean water could allow tropical storms to develop in May ahead of the “official” start. That means making sure you remove damaged limbs or other objects that could become wind-borne debris, make sure you have adequate drainage for heavy rain, and keep an inventory of your belongings that could be washed or blown away in a storm. Have a family plan to keep in touch and evacuate if you need to, including pets and livestock. You can find a lot of good information on preparing for and recovering from natural disasters in this University of Georgia handbook, even if you are not in Georgia or the Southeast.

While the current warm weather makes gardeners eager to get out in their plots and get started, it’s probably too early to start in most of the country except the most southern areas. But you can dream and start planning for the warmer weather soon to come!